Under Review
Citizens’ Two-Sided Demand for Undemocratic Climate Governance (R&R)Abstract
Preferences about climate action are increasingly politicized and polarized.
Using original survey data from Germany (N = 2.101), I demonstrate that stronger preferences – whether for or against climate action – are robustly correlated with support for
various forms of non-democratic governance. Citizens on both sides of the cleavage are
willing to bypass democratic norms in pursuit of their preferred outcomes. This includes,
for example, restricting climate activism, ignoring pro-climate action court rulings, and
censoring climate change denial. I uncover a surprisingly ubiquitous demand for technocracy on both sides of the climate cleavage.
As respondents might hide their support for non-democratic governance due to a strong
social norm for democracy, I use two original list experiments to uncover hidden preferences. The experiments reveal ‘true’ support for undemocratic climate action (prevention)
by about 35 (39) % of citizens. Especially climate action skeptics tend not to disclose their
non-democratic attitudes openly. These insights add evidence to ongoing debates about
the existence of ‘fake’ democrats and are instructive for civil society actors aiming to
uphold democratic resilience amid growing issue-based polarization surrounding climate
change.
More broadly, these findings contribute to the growing literature on democratic resilience
and the conditionality of citizens’ commitment to democratic norms. Here, my focus
on the climate crisis reveals a so-far overlooked dimension of democratic vulnerability:
Erosion of democratic norms is not limited to those concerned about climate change
itself, but also manifests for those vehemently opposing climate action.
National, Partisan or Ideological Biases? How EU Officials’ Characteristics can influence Infringement Proceeding Outcomes (with Johannes Lattmann)
Abstract
Infringement proceedings serve as a key legal mechanism through which the European Union
(EU) enforces compliance with common laws among its member states. This article, for the
first time, examines how the nationality and partisanship of EU officials influence outcomes of
these proceedings. We argue that Commissioners and Director Generals face a principal–agent
dilemma, as they simultaneously act as EU officials and as nationals of their home countries.
We
expect that infringement proceedings are less likely to escalate when they are overseen by EU of-
ficials who share the nationality of the member state under investigation. We further posit that
officials’ partisan affiliations and ideological leaning may shape the outcomes of such cases. Using
a novel dataset combining 19,352 infringement proceedings between 2002-2020 with information
about the responsible officials, we find evidence of a nationality bias, however, only among Commissioners. By contrast, we find no indication of bias linked to ideology or partisanship.
A Case of Strategic Issue Emphasis: Comparing easy-read and regular manifestos using NLP (with Lukas Isermann & Julius Diener)
(Presented: MZES-Workshop “Current Perspective in Party Politics” 2024 & CompText 2023)
Abstract
In this paper we demonstrate that political parties in Germany systematically alter their issue emphasis in easy-read manifestos (ERMs) compared to regular manifestos. We argue parties face an incentive to ‘ride the wave’ by over-emphasizing the issues most salient in the ERMs’ target audience: citizens with disabilities and those struggling with complex language.
Applying natural language processing on 62 ERMs from five parties we find substantial distortions in the communicated political priorities. While welfare-related issues are, on average, over-emphasised by 10 %-points, economic issues are de-emphasised. We corroborate parties’ responsibility for this mismatch through qualitative questionnaires sent to easy-language translation agencies.
Beyond adding to the literature on strategic issue emphasis and applying NLP methods to an unstudied text form, our findings raise important societal questions about political inclusivity. Parties rather leverage ERMs for their own political gain and not their intended purpose of facilitating equal political participation of underprivileged groups.
How Growing Climate Concern Erodes Political Support (with David Schweizer)
(Presented: DVPW AK Umwelt Tagung 2023 & EPSA 2023)
Abstract
Political support is an important foundation of system stability. We argue, increasing concerns about any issue can erode said support under two conditions: high issue salience and perceived government responsibility.
We evaluate this argument using nine different concerns, focusing in-depth on the currently important issue of climate change. Applying random-effects-within-between models to German panel data from 2010 to 2021, we show that increases in all studied concerns are causally linked to declining democratic satisfaction. This addresses an important blind spot in existing research that focuses predominantly on economic concerns.
For climate change concern, the main effect is clearly driven by the most recent waves, where it affects democratic satisfaction even stronger than material concern changes. For citizens with an arguably higher climate salience, stable Green partisans and post-materialists, the negative effect is amplified. We conclude that the climate crisis is increasingly putting pressure on the foundation of democratic systems.
Uncovering Uneven Class Awareness: A Heteroskedastic Regression Approach to Subjective Class Placement (with Franziska Veit)
Abstract
Understanding how individuals perceive their social class is central to political behavior research, yet subjective and objective indicators often diverge. Using German survey data, we examine the structure of that divergence by explicitly modeling differences in the error variance when predicting subjective class perceptions with three standard objective class indicators – education, income, and occupational prestige. Employing a heteroskedastic maximum likelihood estimator, we show that these objective class markers predict subjective class more precisely among individuals scoring highly on them and those satisfied with their position in life. Conversely, citizens from objectively lower classes have more dispersed subjective perceptions. This carries broad implications for research on, for example, class awareness, class mobility, and class-based appeals. Moreover, the analysis cautions against treating subjective and objective class as interchangeable and illustrates the usefulness of heteroskedastic regression, which can be easily adopted to other empirical settings.
Current Work-in-Progress
I) Climate Change & Democracy
Losing Satisfaction or Withdrawing Support? How Climate Change Concerns Shape Democratic SupportAbstract
Does growing climate concern endanger support for democracy? Climate change is a highly salient issue and concern about its consequences is growing. Therefore, I expect climate concern to increasingly factor into citizens’ evaluation of their democratic system. Building on prominent conceptualizations by Easton and Norris, these evaluations can range from being very specific (e.g. trust in the current government or satisfaction with democracy) to very diffuse (e.g. support for democracy and democratic principles).
Using original German panel data (2021-2023; N > 10.000) and random-effects-within-between models, I provide a novel empirical investigation into the causal impact of growing climate concern on system evaluations on different levels. Moreover, through mediation analyses, I am also able to evaluate whether negative impacts indeed follow the causal chain from specific to diffuse evaluations. All hypotheses and analysis steps are pre-registered.
Finally, I test multiple possible conditionalities: The described mechanism should apply more strongly for citizens with a higher climate change salience, because saliency moderates whether an issue factors into citizens’ overall system evaluation. Contrary, feeling that one’s climate position is well represented by parties and higher political efficacy should attenuate the negative impact on their system evaluation.
For one, my contribution provides a valuable empirical test of well-established theories in democracy research within a novel issue dimension. Moreover, climate change salience and concern are likely to rise even further in the future. Thus, understanding the threat for core components of democratic systems posed by this concern also carries important implications beyond the scientific community.
How Water Use Restrictions Impact Climate Concerns and State Evaluations (with Dennis Abel)
Outline
Episodes of drought and long-term climatic change have led many states to employ mandatory water use restrictions as a core instrument of demand management, yet we still have limited systematic knowledge of how these measures shape citizens’ political attitudes, policy preferences and behaviour. Drought is getting political (Zimmermann and Weise 2023). In contrast to price-based instruments that act primarily through household budgets, state-led restrictions are highly visible interventions that directly constrain everyday practices. As such, they constitute a particularly salient instance of regulatory intervention in citizens’ daily lives and may therefore be expected to have distinctive attitudinal and behavioural consequences (Melville-Rea 2022).
In this project we aim to collect panel data through the GESIS panel and link it to a newly constructed data set that captures all water use restrictions in Germany. This way, we aim to identify drivers of acceptance of these restrictions and their impact on climate attitudes as well as evaluations of the state.
Re-Assessing the Impact of Climate Change Concern on Democratic Outcomes Comparatively (with Chiara Schmid)
Outline
In this project, we attempt to collect suitable panel data from all over the world that simultaneously includes
(a) any type of climate change concern, emotion or attitudes
(b) any type of democratic evaluation (e.g. democratic satisfaction or support, trust in politicians).
Even though there seems to be no truly comparative data, we strive to triangulate the causal impact of increasing climate concerns previously identified by research in Germany in a variety of different national contexts.
II) Democracy
Lonely on the Land: Surplus Males and Support for the Far Right (with Mark Kayser, Arndt Leininger, Dani Sandu, Hanna Schwander & Thomas Tichelbäcker)Outline
What role does gender balance play in democratic stability? Unlike investigations into many other determinants of democratic resilience and democratization, barriers to manipulating gender balance and the paucity of natural exogenous shocks make it amenable neither to most experimental nor to many causal quasi-experimental research designs. Leveraging data from the ESS, German elections and two individual surveys, we demonstrate that a surplus of men in a municipality increases the male’s likelihood to vote and support radical right parties. We additionally demonstrate similar patterns based on the gender balance of respondents’ region during their formative years, as well as a significant relationship between AfD support and perceived hardship to find a suitable partner. Next to social sorting, our results thus suggest early socialisation and dating frustrations as possible drivers behind male’s increased affinity for radical right parties.
Everyone Loves Democracy, But Who Wants to Protect it? Examining Support for Militant Democracy (with Luke Shuttleworth & Hanna Schwander)
Abstract
Recent experiences in countries like the United States, Poland, or Hungary demonstrate that democratic backsliding is a growing threat even in established democracies. This has reignited debates over militant democracy, i.e. preventive measures to keep undemocratic actors out of power. While existing research examines the design and effectiveness of measures such as proscription, employment bans, and media deplatforming, we know less about citizens’ support for such measures. As efforts to safeguard democracy require public support to be legitimate and effective, this is a dangerous omission.
We argue that support for militant democracy is primarily shaped by (a) people’s conceptions of democracy, (b) the threat targeted organisations pose to democracy, as well as (c) people’s ideological distance to targeted organisations. We support this claim with data from an original survey of 4.000 respondents, fielded in February 2026 in Germany. We propose a novel dimension of democracy conceptions that captures the extent to which citizens hold what we call a militant conception of democracy.
Our findings suggest that individuals who hold stronger militant conceptions of democracy are more likely to support pre-emptive measures. We further argue that acceptance of pre-emptive measures is intertwined with wider institutional trust. Authorities looking to employ militant democracy measures therefore do well to ensure guarantees against abuse and arbitrary measures against political opponents.
Lonely on the Land: Surplus Males and Support for the Far Right (with Mark Kayser, Heike Klüver, & Hanna Schwander)
Outline
In this study, we aim to leverage spatial variation in the closures of hospitals in Germany and a multi-wavel survey panel to identify the impact of local clinic closures on radical right support, blame attribution and attitudes towards the state.
III) Subjective Free Speech
The Costs of Speaking Freely in a Liberal Democracy (with Richard Traunmüller)(Presented: EPSA 2024)
Abstract
A growing number of citizens says that they are no longer free to speak their mind. This raises an important question in the study of democracy. What sanctions of free expression exist in a liberal democracy, how probable are they and what costs do they entail? And how accurate are citizens’ perceptions?
We model the degree of free speech as the product of the probability of being sanctioned for speech and the associated costs of those sanctions. Using multiple original surveys from Germany, we relate this heuristic model to empirical data and present three studies on citizens’ perceptions of free speech.
Study 1 shows that citizens distinguish regular discursive risks from manifest negative consequences. While the former are perceived as much more probable, both carry comparable costs for free speech. Study 2 evaluates which topics are sanctioned and by whom. Exploiting randomized issue primes we find few differences in reported sanction probabilities. However, citizens do not feel restricted by close social ties but by more distant democratic actors. Last, study 3 demonstrates that citizens’ expectations of being sanctioned for speaking freely are to a substantial degree rooted in actual experiences. Taken together, these findings have significant implications for our understanding of liberal democracy and its vulnerabilities.
Who Self-Censors about What? Evaluating Double List Experiments in a Bayesian Framework (with Richard Traunmüller)
Outline
In this contribution, we evaluate multiple embedded double list experiments and the direct assessment of sensitive attitudes in our original survey data (s. bottom of this page) within the Bayesian framework proposed by Lu & Traunmüller to understand:
(a) In which topics respondents are most likely to censor themselves (i.e. government critique, pro gender-equality, pro climate action, or pro immigration).
(b) If respondents differentiate between policy preferences or potentially hateful attitudes.
(c) Whether self-censoring tendencies in the experiment align with a reported tendency to self-censor and to subjective freedom of speech.
(d) To what extent self-censorship is driven my respondent- or population-level evaluations of statements as being truthful, dangerous, and insulting.
Overall, this study should provide a comprehensive look into the issue of self-censorship going beyond self-reported measures.
The Political Correlates of Declining Subjective Freedom of Speech
Outline
In this project, I aim to use data from the German Longitudinal Election Study to:
(a) Illustrate whether the feeling of not being free to speak one’s mind increased over the last years.
(b) Show through random-effects-within-between estimators that changes in subjective free speech are causally related to various democratic outcomes such as democratic satisfaction and identification with the radical right.
(c) Investigate the causal direction of these relationships in the structural equation framework (i.e. through random intercept cross-lagged panel models)
Does Political Polarization Harm Subjective Freedom of Speech? (with João Areal & Richard Traunmüller)
(Presented: 2022 RISC-Workshop “Polarization and Cohesion in Democracies” & EPSA 2023)
Abstract
Does political polarization harm citizens’ subjective sense of free speech? Seminal accounts in political science such as the ‘spiral of silence’, conformity pressures in social networks, or online echo-chambers point to social in-group mechanisms that can restrict citizens’ free expression. We offer a novel alternative argument that focuses on a different aspect of political polarization. We decompose polarization into two parts: in-group attachment and out-group aversion.
Specifically, we argue that out-group aversion reduces normative constraints on citizens’ expression and therefore has a liberating effect on subjective free speech. We test our argument using data from two original surveys fielded in Germany and including a new measure of out-group aversion. The results broadly support our argument and suggest that out-group aversion not only significantly increases subjective freedom of speech, but is of far greater relevance than contrasting in-group mechanisms. This finding has important implications for our understanding of political polarization, public opinion and democratic culture.
III) Other Projects
Data Collection
Survey: Militant Democracy
Collected: 2026 (with Luke Shuttleworth & Hanna Schwander)Documentation: [Questionnaire]
Keywords: Militant Democracy, Democratic Conceptions, Political Behavior, Radical Right, Democratic Resilience
Survey: Clinic Closures
Collected: First wave 2025 (with Mark Kayser, Heike Klüver, & Hanna Schwander)Documentation: [Codebook]
Keywords: Infrastructure, Regional Deprivation, Radical Right Support, Political Support, Clinic Reform
Module: Climate Policy: Emotions, Attitudes and Trade-Offs
Collected: Within the SOEP-Innovation Sample 2023 waves, with D. SchweizerDocumentation: [Module Questionnaire], [SOEP-IS Website]
Keywords: Climate Change, Democracy, Trade-Offs, Political Behavior, List Experiments, Emotions
Note: Module authors have privileged access to the data for one year after its collection. Thus, feel free to get in contact, if you are interested in using our module or, even better, want to collaborate in evaluating our data.
Survey: Subjective Free Speech and Related Concepts
Collected: Two waves (September and November of 2022), with R. TraunmüllerDocumentation: [Codebook Wave 1], [Codebook Wave 2]
Keywords: (Subjective) Free Speech, Self-Censorship, Censoring Others, Tolerance, De-Platforming, Hate Speech